21
and Spain and in terms of consumption
per head, the leading four nations
are Italy, France, Switzerland and
Portugal. Whilst all forecast to see
declining volume by 2018, other
European nations - Austria and Greece
- are forecast to show an increase.
45
Interestingly, new interest has been
reported in Eastern Europe, with
the Wine Investment Fund director
Rodney Birrell, commenting in February
2015 that “Recently we’ve been
getting a lot of interest – although
not investment yet – from Eastern
Europe, so Slovakia, Slovenia and
Poland, but very little from Russia”
49
.
Whilst the growth of the Chinese market
in the last decade did much to eclipse
the traditional markets of Europe and
the US, for the first time in three years,
the global wine-auction market rose in
value in 2014, to $350 million - a small
increase of 5.5% on 2013, (although
still 26% down on the record results of
2011), thanks to the US market, which
surged up by 28.6% on 2013, making
up for declines in Europe and Asia. The
US has consolidated its lead on Asia in
terms of market share, now making up
just under half of live-auction revenues,
with Asia just below one third. The US
also boasts the highest percentage
of lots sold, at 95.1% compared to a
global average of 90.5%, flat on 2013.
47
It seems that the combination of low
prices and a strong dollar against the
euro means that American buyers are
returning after several years.
22
Currency
wise, Liv-ex reported that, ‘Although
the index is calculated in Sterling, the
recovery is perhaps better understood
when viewed in Euros and Dollars.
While prices have risen in Sterling, they
look cheaper still in Dollars, bringing
American and Asian buyers back into
the market’. At the end of February
2015, the dollar had strengthened to
€1.135, from the time of the last en
primeur in May 2014 when it was trading
at €1.35. “So the Euro’s down 17% on the
world’s biggest currency,” said Liv-ex
director Justin Gibbs. “That’s a great
positive for the fine wine market and
buyers are more likely to get involved”
51
.
The US, which boasts the world’s
biggest economy
52
, certainly has the
wealth to get involved, with 44,922
UHNWIs in 2014, forecast to grow
to 50,767 by 2024 compared to the
Chinese projection of 15,681 by 2024.
9
The increased interest was evident at
the Acker, Merrall & Condit fine wine
auction in New York in February 2015
which saw US buyers take
84% of the lots on offer, including 110
world records. The sale came after a
notable upturn in US interest in the
fine wine market in the last few
months of 2014, with auction house
Zachys signalling a ‘significant
shift’ back to the US.
53
The statistics for wine consumption in
the US are also strong, with January
2015 figures compiled by market
research group IWSR and released by
Vinexpo, predicting that the US would
strengthen its lead over France as the
biggest wine consuming nation overall.
US consumption is set to rise by 11% up
to the end of 2018, to 4.5bn bottles.
In fact, it is U.S. demand which
is set to drive expansion in the
world wine market through 2018
as consumption growth slows in
China and traditional markets such
as France and Italy contract.
47
USA
* Figures include still light wine, sparkling wine, light
aperitif, fortified wines and other wines
Source: Bloomberg
46
CONSUMPTION PER COUNTRY
000
s
of 9L
% charge
Source: The Drinks Business
51
20%
NA
NA
JADEWARE
18%
13%
6%
PORCELAIN
16%
13%
9%
MODERN
ART
9%
5%
NA
WESTERN
HOUSES
8%
10%
15%
CARS
THE LIV-EX FINE 100 INDEX BY CURRENCY
(2010-2015)
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
Index level
(rebased at 100 in jan 2010)
GBP
EUR
USD
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
CHINA
743,175
+5
USA
345,500
+1
FRANCE
310,598
-1
ITALY
294,999
-2
GERMANY
282,889
-1
UK
142,489
-1
ARGENTINA
116,935
+1
JAPAN
106,146
+3
RUSSIA
103,936
-1
SPAIN
99,443
-2
